The main lesson from the May 20, 2014 presidential, parliamentary, and local elections in Malawi is that there is no change. Voters in Malawi cast votes on a regional basis. There were four major candidates. Peter Mutharika of the DPP swept the Southern Region, Atupele Muluzi of UDF swept the Eastern Region, Lazarus Chakwera of MCP swept the Central Region, and Joyce Banda of PP swept the Northern Region. Parliamentary and local voting patterns were similar. The overall winner was Peter Mutharika.
Joyce Banda is an interesting case because she comes from the Eastern Region. However, her husband Richard Banda is from the Northern Region.
The Southern Region is the most populous region of Malawi. The past five multiparty presidential elections in Malawi since 1994 have been won by a candidate from the Southern Region. At this point conventional wisdom should tell us that the major presidential candidate from the Southern Region should win the elections. So why were the 2014 results surprising?
There were several factors that most pundits assumed would play a role in deciding the winner. The first was simply that the incumbent, Joyce Banda, should be favored to win. The second was that there were three major candidates, including the incumbent, from the Southern Region which would result in splitting the Southern vote. This would have two possible effects. One scenario was that the candidate from the Central Region would benefit. The second scenario was that the candidate from the Southern Region who also carried the Northern Region would carry the day. The third was the freshness of Lazarus Chakwera. For the first time in Malawi politics there was a candidate not imbued with past political controversies.
These assumed factors did not have the assumed effect, at least not to the level that would affect the outcome. The surprise was that the outcome was business as usual.
Going forward, political parties whose main following is not in the Southern Region will need to come up with new strategies. One possible strategy is to field a candidate from the Southern Region. The parties should be cautioned that just fielding a Southern candidate is not adequate. Joyce Banda is from the South but the perception was that she is from the North. The Southern Region electorate must embrace the candidate as one of their own for such a candidate to have a chance of winning. The problem with this strategy is that it condemns all non-Southern candidates from ever winning the presidency.
A second possible strategy is to form credible coalitions. A candidate from either the Northern Region or the Central Region standing on a ticket of the party that has a large following in those respective regions needs to peel off Southern support. Again parties should be cautioned that voters abandon their own regional party when they sense that the leader is betraying them by teaming up with a rival.
The third strategy is one that I hope will be fulfilled one day. That the main political parties will become truly national. My hope is that elections will be contested competitively from north to south and from east to west by multiple political parties. I hope such a day will be hastened.
Joyce Banda is an interesting case because she comes from the Eastern Region. However, her husband Richard Banda is from the Northern Region.
The Southern Region is the most populous region of Malawi. The past five multiparty presidential elections in Malawi since 1994 have been won by a candidate from the Southern Region. At this point conventional wisdom should tell us that the major presidential candidate from the Southern Region should win the elections. So why were the 2014 results surprising?
There were several factors that most pundits assumed would play a role in deciding the winner. The first was simply that the incumbent, Joyce Banda, should be favored to win. The second was that there were three major candidates, including the incumbent, from the Southern Region which would result in splitting the Southern vote. This would have two possible effects. One scenario was that the candidate from the Central Region would benefit. The second scenario was that the candidate from the Southern Region who also carried the Northern Region would carry the day. The third was the freshness of Lazarus Chakwera. For the first time in Malawi politics there was a candidate not imbued with past political controversies.
These assumed factors did not have the assumed effect, at least not to the level that would affect the outcome. The surprise was that the outcome was business as usual.
Going forward, political parties whose main following is not in the Southern Region will need to come up with new strategies. One possible strategy is to field a candidate from the Southern Region. The parties should be cautioned that just fielding a Southern candidate is not adequate. Joyce Banda is from the South but the perception was that she is from the North. The Southern Region electorate must embrace the candidate as one of their own for such a candidate to have a chance of winning. The problem with this strategy is that it condemns all non-Southern candidates from ever winning the presidency.
A second possible strategy is to form credible coalitions. A candidate from either the Northern Region or the Central Region standing on a ticket of the party that has a large following in those respective regions needs to peel off Southern support. Again parties should be cautioned that voters abandon their own regional party when they sense that the leader is betraying them by teaming up with a rival.
The third strategy is one that I hope will be fulfilled one day. That the main political parties will become truly national. My hope is that elections will be contested competitively from north to south and from east to west by multiple political parties. I hope such a day will be hastened.
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